Some Thoughts on Arsenal — Villarreal
On Thursday, Arsenal visit the Estadio de la Cerámica in a game of enormous importance in the context of this season. Qualification for Europa through the Premier League remains a slight possibility, but winning the UEL is necessary if the side is to reach the Champions League. Against this backdrop, this is a short post examining what Arsenal are up against, as well as my preferred approach against Unai Emery’s team.
A Bare Bones Overview of Villarreal
Over the (admittedly small) amount of footage I’ve looked at, Villarreal’s key strengths lie in three areas:
- Buildup, specifically the ability to generate superiorities in the first line;
- Overloads on the wings to unleash fullbacks into space; and
- Gerard Moreno, whose 11 penalties do not substantially diminish the fact that he has already scored 26 goals this season.
These three factors concern me quite a bit, because in Dani Parejo and Manu Trigueros, Emery has two players who excel in transitioning cleanly from buildup to the forwards.
The center-backs split, the fullbacks push high and Parejo drops closer to the defence, with the second midfielder in the double pivot (Étienne Capoue for the past two games) taking up a higher position in a different lane. This staggering is complemented by Trigueros, who drops into the same lane as Parejo from an advanced position and has the freedom to create overloads as necessary. The fullbacks — presumably Pedraza and Gaspar — hold the width, with strikers Paco Alcacer and Gerard Moreno floating centrally into the halfspace. It’s also likely that we see Samuel Chukwueze on the right, in which case the right back can tuck in slightly to offer yet another release valve to the first two lines.
There is an intentionality to Villarreal’s moves, where the idea is to first, progress play behind the opposition’s second line to the fullbacks and second, allow them to funnel play back inside while quickly moving to offer support to the strikers. It is common to see third man combinations from Pau Torres, Parejo and Trigueros to find each other, often with a single pass that finds the free man and forces the press to recalibrate. Mistakes are, of course, made in this phase, but that is the case for every team and is ameliorated to a good extent by the technical ability of the players in question.
Because the Villarreal fullbacks must receive in space, teams face a choice against Emery’s team — either they take up the fullbacks and leave themselves vulnerable through the middle, or they avoid the fullbacks and hope that they time the press well enough to take control. When the fullbacks do receive the pass, they do so with a good body orientation in order to carry it forward quickly — again a consequence of Villarreal’s dominance in the center which allows them to stay away from the buildup.
From here, Trigueros has the license to move and change lanes, while the question of holding width/coming inside on the right depends on which one of Chukwueze or Moi Gómez takes the field. Parejo and Coquelin/Iborra/Capoue then move to support the attack and provide a base for circulation, which also helps in counter pressing when possession is lost.
My preferred Arsenal setup
Asenjo, Torres and Parejo — three technically sound players who can play their way out of a press. How should Arsenal respond?
At the outset, I have to confess that I do not fully trust Arsenal’s ability to press. Perhaps with a training camp, Arteta could have dialled up his team’s intensity and off-ball prowess, but I do not think their current ability is sufficient. That being said, I think there are two solution that can be used.
The first is a narrow medium press, organised in a 4–2–3–1/4–3–3 shape [see above] — the idea is for the striker (Lacazette or Nketiah) to stay focused on Parejo while the No. 10 (likely ESR) marks the other pivot midfielder. Wingers stay tucked in, while maintaining access to the fullbacks. Villarreal will likely look to their advanced players (Trigueros/Moreno) to drop, but a Ceballos/Partey pivot should have enough awareness and mobility to stay tight to these movements.
The point of not aggressively staying with the fullbacks is to encourage back passes, which can see Lacazette press Parejo (likely recipient) and occasionally, continue to Torres or Albiol. There is a need for quick jumping from the rest of the team to execute this — when the ST moves, the attacking midfielder/No. 10 jumps to Parejo, while the winger near the ball holds his run leaving open the passing lane to the left back. The idea is to create a touchline press where the fullback receives under pressure from the ball near winger and cannot easily access any options around him. It also mitigates the 2v1 that might be created against the Arsenal right back, which would be an obvious danger.
As for the ball far winger, he needs to curves his run to press the other center-back while keeping the right back in his cover shadow. Ceballos will be crucial in backing up this run by the winger away from the ball, since he has to stay alert to both the pivot as well as the position of the right back.
The second is a conventional medium/low block, in either a 4–4–2 or 4–5–1 structure. The idea here is to close off the wings and deny wingers any space, while maintaining bodies in the center to defend passing lanes. Personally, I don’t like this approach — there is a significant risk of Parejo and Trigueros being able to manipulate this scheme, particularly by luring Partey and Ceballos to higher areas. They are the key players because they constitute the second line; it is easy to visualise Moreno dropping into Ceballos’ area to flick the ball outside for a 1v1 between Chukwueze and Xhaka. However, I can see Arsenal dropping into this scheme midway in either half, as a means of conserving energy.
Arsenal have toggled between pressing and sitting deep this season, but teams like Villarreal — who possess technically proficient personnel — demand a greater level of attention. Correctly executed, we might have a game where Villarreal are forced into a U-shaped circulation pattern, with the occasional press capable of creating turnovers.
In Attack
I am nervous about fielding Xhaka in defence, especially with Chukwueze the likely player to start on the right. I would have liked Saka in defence, but I doubt Arteta tinkers too much with what has become a settled line-up over the past few games. Even if he does, it is unlikely that Xhaka sits this one out — the buildup is premised on the Swiss’ ability to guide us from the back.
Villarreal are a “press and possess” team — they have sought to press even possession proficient teams like Barcelona in a man-oriented fashion. Due to this, Xhaka and Thomas have to be on their best form, with Ceballos being the one to move wide and support the structure.
This was a game in which I’d have liked Ødegaard as the No. 10, primarily because of his tendency to drop deep into half spaces and create overloads by prompting movement from the advanced players. However, Xhaka’s prominence in our scheme combined with ESR’s ability to combine in tight spaces will be interesting against this press. Specifically, I believe a left-side emphasis has be maintained by Arsenal, freeing up Saka to make runs into depth against Villarreal’s slower side comprising of Parejo and Torres. The youngster’s ability to receive on the move will be important, as will be the overlap/underlap provided by the right back. Exploiting the left, before switching to probing down Villarreal’s right (either through Pépé or Martinelli, both of whom can stretch the pitch) will be crucial. Nketiah must bridge the flanks and has shown the ability to play the link role reasonably well — however, our chances are massively boosted if Lacazette returns in time (& with enough fitness to at least last an hour).
Conclusion
This is a fascinating game regardless of how it plays out, but I do think Arsenal have enough weapons to be able to get past Emery’s Villarreal. This is not an easy team to beat, and the player with the kind of profile that can break Emery’s structure — a dribbler from deep — doesn’t have a clean bill of health or the coach’s full trust (Ødegaard). However, with Martinelli, ESR and Saka, Arsenal have a chance — it’s just about finding enough variations to force them into reacting to us.
